Reviewing this article from last December, one grasps the dramatic changes caused by the escalation of violence in the past few months. Before Christmas, following the refusal of Yasser Arafat to arrest the suspected assassins of Israeli Tourism Minister Rechavam Ze'evi, and after the Palestinian arms smuggling attempt on the Karine A was uncovered and no arrests were made, the government of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon confined the PA Chairman to Ramallah.

The violence has only escalated since. The visits to the region of mediator Gen. Anthony Zinni and U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney induced Sharon to relax his confinement on Arafat, reduce criteria for restarting negotiations, and restrain initial Israeli responses to terror attacks that did not cease. However, in the wake of the March attacks that killed 125 Israelis, and especially the Passover eve bombing in Netanya, Arafat and his Authority were officially defined as "enemy" entities, a step that Israel's unity government (especially its Labor party component) balked at previously.

What has not changed dramatically are the many contenders for Arafat's leadership role, although none, especially now, would be so bold as to declare their "candidacy" for that leadership role. Indeed, Marwan Barghouti and Jibril Rajoub, along with their followers, are themselves being challenged and pursued by Israeli forces. Hamas leaders, too, are likely to be hunted down by the Israel Defense Forces. What may have become more likely, especially after recent developments and Israeli statements, is that Arafat may be forced into exile, possibly, with some historical irony, on the Karine A arms smuggling ship he ordered.

The various scenarios, and personalities, as they were perceived a few months ago, are explored in detail below:

The Israeli government this week declared the Palestinian Authority a "terror-supporting entity" but stopped short of moving to dismantle the PA. Right-wing ministers called for the expulsion of PA Chairman Yasser Arafat, with hopes that a more moderate leadership would replace him. But if Arafat goes, it is not all that certain that his policies would be driven from the territories as well.

The Yesha Council, the settlers' organization representing Jewish communities in Judea, Samaria and Gaza, launched a new campaign Thursday under the slogan, "Expel Arafat, bring back hope." Earlier slogans have suggested that the expulsion of Arafat would lead to security, or even peace, but this time the campaign is directed at Palestinians in the West Bank as well. Yesha leaders will distribute leaflets in Arabic that detail the huge number of Palestinian casualties in the territories since Arafat took power.

Hard-line Islamic organization could take power
Some Israeli leaders who oppose dismantling the Palestinian Authority fear that a hard-line Islamic leadership would replace Arafat. According to a poll conducted by Dr. Nader Said of Bir Zeit University in October, support among Palestinians for Islamist groups has risen to 31 percent, up from 23 percent in September 2000. The radical Hamas group has been gaining strength at the expense of Arafat's mainstream Fatah faction.

Hamas's support is disproportionately strong among women and students, who appreciate its schools and other services, according to Dr. Said. The organization's promotion of Islam has also contributed to its rising strength, but the greatest source of its rising popularity is the organization's successful suicide bombings, which kill Israelis.

When asked if Hamas would take over if Arafat fell, Boaz Ganor, director of the International Policy Institute for Counterterrorism, replied: "Conceivable? The answer is yes. Probable? The answer is no."

The Hamas leadership is divided between its political and military leaders. Political leaders Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi and Mahmoud al-Zahar claim not to know anything about the organization's military operations. The identity of Hamas military leaders usually only surfaces when Israel takes action against them. Popular Hamas spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who was placed under house arrest in Gaza on Wednesday, does not possess practical leadership skills.

Israeli leaders no longer fear the rise of a radical Islamic leadership or anarchy, according to Gerald M. Steinberg, director of the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation at Bar-Ilan University. Writing in the Jerusalem Post this week, Steinberg said, "The hell of terrorist bombings is already here." Steinberg suggested that IDF military actions against the Palestinian Authority "may even accelerate the transition to a pragmatic Palestinian leadership, which, unlike Arafat, is not mired in the rejectionist ideology and Crusader analogies of 1947."

Arafat would lead the Palestinian cause from exile
Most analysts believe that even if expelled from the territories, Arafat would continue to lead the Palestinian cause from exile, as he did when based in Lebanon and Tunisia. "Arafat would continue to serve as the undisputed and only leader of the Palestinians," wrote Ronny Shaked in Yediot Aharonot this week. "He would have no problem controlling the Palestinian street from afar," Shaked said, adding that the exile would only serve to ignite the territories.

Arafat, who is regarded by the Palestinians as the legitimate leader of their struggle for independence and a symbol of their national cause, has no official appointed successor. There is no alternative leadership ready to fill Arafat's shoes, and there are also no challengers to his regime.

According to Shaked, a successor to Arafat would only be appointed upon his death. "When his day comes, a battle for succession will emerge, and it is doubtful whether his replacement would be willing to implement moderate policies different from the ideological political inheritance he would receive," Shaked wrote.

According to a Yediot Aharonot report, the Bush administration recently began speaking discreetly with Palestinian Authority officials about the possibility that Arafat would fall from power. The American assessment, according to the newspaper, is that Arafat won't fall in the near future, but if and when he did, a transitory Palestinian leadership would replace him.

Future leaders - Palestinian Old Guard and homegrown leaders
Leading candidates to replace Arafat would include members of the Palestinian "Old Guard" - long time Arafat associates identified with the establishment of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) - and younger homegrown leaders who rose to positions of power following their roles in the first Intifada in 1987. The transitory leadership would probably consist of representatives of both groups.

Abu Ala -- The person who would immediately assume power if Arafat left the scene would be Palestinian Parliament Speaker Ahmed Qurei, also known as Abu Ala. Abu Ala, 63, one of the architects of the Oslo Accords, would become the Palestinian leader for 60 days until elections were held. Abu Ala was recently appointed to head the Palestinian delegation in meetings with American envoy Anthony Zinni.

Abu Mazen -- Yediot Aharonot suggests, though, that the person who would lead the temporary government would be Arafat's deputy Mahmoud Abbas, better known as Abu Mazen. Abu Mazen, 66, was, along with Arafat, a founding member of the Fatah. Though considered to be the person closest to Arafat, Abu Mazen reportedly was not on speaking terms with the Palestinian Chairman in recent months. Abu Mazen was the co-author of the so-called Abu Mazen-Beilin documents that suggested final status Israeli-Palestinian arrangements, documents that Abu Mazen later contended never existed. He is said to have very extreme, unwavering opinions, especially regarding the right of return for Palestinian refugees.

Jibril Rajoub -- Many Israelis leaders reportedly would like to see West Bank Preventive Security Service chief Jibril Rajoub replace Arafat due to Rajoub's moderate views. Rajoub, 48, is considered the strong man of the West Bank, and someone who has maintained a "clean" image despite the Palestinian uprising. Security arrangements with Rajoub and his forces to keep the quiet in Hebron and Beit Jala, allowing for Israeli troop withdrawals, have worked for the most part, despite the occasional outburst of Palestinian violence. Rajoub is frequently interviewed by the Israeli media, and Palestinians cite, in his favor, the fact that IDF tanks shelled his Ramallah home.

Mohammed Dahlan -- The head of the PA's Preventive Security force in the Gaza Strip reportedly tendered his resignation recently, but Arafat rejected it. Dahlan, 39, reportedly has total control over the Tanzim in Gaza, and has good connections both with the Egyptian leadership and the American government, through his connections with the CIA. According to Yediot Aharonot, Dahlan is the only Palestinian, besides Arafat, who was granted a private meeting with former U.S. President Bill Clinton.

Amin al-Hindi -- Palestinian Intelligence Chief Amin al-Hindi, 65, is considered very loyal to Arafat and has proven himself efficient in negotiations with Israeli security officials. He is considered more pragmatic than other Palestinian leaders. But, according to Yediot Aharonot, al-Hindi lacks the charisma of other leaders like Rajoub and Dahlan.

Another Palestinian leader who receives extensive international media coverage is West Bank Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti. Even so, Barghouti is not considered by media analysts as a serious candidate to participate in a transitory leadership group.

"All the candidates who will one day inherit [Arafat's] chair will continue with his policies," said Shaked in his article. According to Shaked, no future Palestinian leader would forgo on the Palestinians' basic demands: Right of return for Palestinian refugees, a Palestinian Jerusalem and the dismantling of the settlements. Among the candidates, the battle is for the chair, not for alternative directions, Shaked concluded.

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