PA Chairman Yasser Arafat at a press conference in Paris on Wednesday. (AP)

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	Targeting Jibril Rajoub
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	Palestinian National Authority

A report published in Yediot Aharonot this week claimed that officials in the Defense Ministry and in the IDF have recently discussed the implications of Israel's initiating the collapse of the Palestinian Authority. The goal of such a move, according to the report, would be to replace PA Chairman Yasser Arafat with an alternative, more pragmatic leadership.

Yediot Aharonot correspondent Ronny Shaked wrote that the discussions focused on using continued military action and financial pressure to lead to the total collapse of the Palestinian Authority. In one possible outcome to this scenario, Arafat would be forced to leave the territories and would be replaced by new leadership from among the leaders of the first Intifada, possibly Muhammed Dahlan or Jibril Rajoub.

The Defense Ministry officials also envisioned a different

"Any attempt to exile Arafat would turn him into a hero" - Dr. Menachem Klein

possible result of Arafat's departure from Palestinian leadership - the "Lebanonization" of the territories. In this scenario, local leaders would organize their own private militias, there would be an escalation of violence and there would be no one authoritative body with which Israel could negotiate. This scenario was seen as a more likely result of Arafat's absence, leading to the Ministry dropping the idea of forcing the PA's collapse.

In an article published in Ha'aretz in February, correspondent Ze'ev Schiff wrote that defense experts had speculated on the different dangers that could result from the collapse of the Palestinian Authority:

"There are those who explain that, if Israelis are expecting another leader to succeed Arafat in the event of the PA's collapse, there is no guarantee that the new leader would be any better for the peace process. Others explain that the collapse of the PA would produce anarchy in the territories, a situation that would not be in Israel's best interests. Still another explanation is that, if the PA collapses, Israel would not be able to conduct any form of dialogue with the Palestinians on political or security issues or, for that matter, even on basic, humanitarian questions."

Palestinian Authority in no danger of collapse
Palestinian affairs expert Dr. Menachem Klein claims that Arafat is in no danger of being ousted nor is the Palestinian Authority collapsing. In an article that appeared this week in The Jerusalem Post, Klein says that Palestinian opposition to Arafat's undemocratic form of government and of high-level corruption in the PA bureaucracy "have been stilled and opposition to the way the Intifada is being managed is minimal."

Klein said "any attempt to exile Arafat would turn him into a hero." Klein says that Israeli authorities "underestimate the will of the Palestinian people to achieve independence, an end to what they see as the occupation of the territories and the removal of Jewish settlements."

Dr. Hillel Frisch, senior researcher at Bar Ilan University's Center for Strategic Studies, says that Arafat is in full control of the Palestinian Authority. Interviewed by The Jerusalem Post, Frisch claims that Arafat "controls all the money and the security forces, which he has divided to prevent coup attempts."

Opposition leader Yossi Sarid (Meretz) cautioned this week against switching Yasser Arafat, saying that such a move "would lead to chaos in the territories and additional loss of life."

Bassem Eid, Executive Director of The Palestinian Human Rights Monitoring Group in East Jerusalem, said recently that the collapse of the Palestinian Authority would "be a disaster not only for the Palestinian people, but also for the Israeli people at the same time." In an interview with Radio Singapore in March, Eid said, "Israelis realize that the Palestinian Authority is the only character which can approach peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis."

Former Chief of Staff and Knesset Member Rafael Eitan recently said, "As long as Yasser Arafat heads the campaign or the Palestinian Authority, there is no chance of reaching a lasting agreement with him, even for a limited period."

Even so, as is apparent to Defense Ministry officials and other knowledgeable experts, there is no viable Palestinian alternative today to the leadership of Yasser Arafat.

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